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janvier 11, 2005
KHMER INTELLIGENCE - 11 January 2005
Three main political parties to hold congresses (2) Cambodia's three main political parties are going to hold their respective congresses from January to March this year.
- CPP: Meeting of the 153-member Central Committee by the end of this month.
- Funcinpec: Organization of a small and discreet congress around 21st March, which will correspond to the 24th anniversary of the originally "Sihanoukist" movement's foundation.
- Sam Rainsy Party: Extraordinary congress by the end of March to launch a reform of the party aimed at promoting internal democracy and setting an example for other parties (see KI, 07 November
2004: "SRP embarks on internal reforms").
Cambodia heading towards a two-party system (2) Many observers think that, with the disintegration of Funcinpec (see KI, 28 December 2004: "Ranariddh wants to sell Funcinpec headquarters"), Cambodia is heading for a two-party system. The next general elections in 2008 will see the SRP as the only serious challenger to the CPP. But a new political landscape will emerge at that time on the basis of a predictable change in the balance of forces from 2003 (last general elections) to 2008 (next general elections). In terms of popular votes, the balance of forces will evolve as follows:
- CPP supporters in favour of the status quo in 2003: 2.4 million votes.
- Non-CPP supporters in favour of a change in 2003: 2.7 million votes (SRP + Funcinpec + smaller parties).
- Eligible voters (mostly opposition supporters) who were prevented from voting because of political/administrative harassment in 2003:
1.0 million (on top of the 0.5 million citizens who consistently do not take part in any elections).
- New voters (age from 18 to 22) in 2008: There will be an additional 1.5 million eligible voters at the next elections. Most of those new and young voters will be unemployed (see KI, 02 January
2005: "Unemployment is a time-bomb for Cambodia") and are likely to favour a political change.
Posted by socrate at janvier 11, 2005 04:53 PM
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